Crude oil sinks on soft U.S. jobs data, OPEC+ expectations but still up for the week

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Crude oil futures fell for a second straight session Friday, ahead of a likely increase in production by OPEC and its allies, while a weaker than expected U.S. employment report rekindled worries about oil demand.

OPEC+ is expected to agree [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-expected-raise-oil-production-further-sunday-sources-say-2025-08-01/] over the weekend to another large output increase for September, adding as much as 548K bbl/day - similar to the group's August boost - as it works to fully unwind its 2.2M bbl/day of November 2023 voluntary production cuts.

The cartel still has in place a separate voluntary cut of ~1.65M bbl/day from eight members and a 2M bbl/day cut across all members, which expire at the end of 2026.

U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, as the Labor Department said non-farm payrolls added just 73,000 jobs, and job gains for the previous two months were revised down by a huge 258,000, indicating the jobs market has lost momentum even earlier than expected.

On the positive side, the soft employment data puts September in play for a Federal Reserve rate cut, “but weakening economic numbers is something that the market has really been fearing," CIBC Private Wealth U.S. senior energy trader Rebecca Babin wrote.

A surprise 7.7M-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories also raised concerns of slowing demand, while President Trump’s latest flurry of new tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, added to worries over the potential for slower global growth and weaker fuel demand.

Crude futures still ended the week higher, jumping earlier on President Trump's threats of new sanctions or secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian oil and optimism over U.S. trade deals that were struck with major partners including the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

This week, front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for September delivery finished +3.3% to $67.33/bbl, its best one-week gain since mid-June, and front-month October Brent crude closed +3% to $69.67/bbl; on Friday, both benchmarks fell 2.8%.

Front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) for September delivery settled -2.4% for the week at $3.083/MMBtu; on Friday, U.S. natgas fell 0.7%.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (NYSEARCA:UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG])

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), finished the week -1.7%.

Top 5 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Elong Power Holding (ELPW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ELPW]) +39.2%, Geospace Technologies (GEOS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GEOS]) +22.7%, USA Rare Earth (USAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USAR]) +16%, Chart Industries (GTLS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GTLS]) +15.7%, Talen Energy (TLN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLN]) +9%.

Top 15 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Namib Minerals (NAMM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NAMM]) -31.7%, American Battery Technology (ABAT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ABAT]) -30.3%, Blue Gold (BGL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BGL]) -30.2%, Sigma Lithium (SGML [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGML]) -28.6%, Enovix (ENVX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ENVX]) -27.1%, New Fortress Energy (NFE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NFE]) -25.3%, TMC the metals company (TMC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TMC]) -24.6%, Fusion Fuel Green (HTOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HTOO]) -23.7%, Prairie Operating (PROP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PROP]) -22.3%, Snow Lake Resources (LITM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LITM]) -22.1%, Comstock Resources (CRK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRK]) -20.9%, VivoPower International (VVPR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VVPR]) -19.9%, Atlas Lithium (ATLX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ATLX]) -19.3%, Uranium Royalty (UROY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UROY]) -19%, Albemarle (ALB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ALB]) -18.9%.

Source: Barchart.com

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