Viasat (VSAT) Stock After 104% YTD Rally Is The Market Getting Ahead Of It

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If you are wondering whether Viasat stock still offers value after a strong run, the starting point is to understand what the current price is really reflecting. The stock last closed at US$76.69, with a 19.4% gain over the past week, a decline of 4.9% over the past month, and returns of 103.8% year to date and 425.3% over the past year. These sharp moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing interest in satellite connectivity, including Viasat's role in providing broadband services to residential, commercial, and government customers. Investors have been reacting to a mix of contract updates, capacity deployment milestones, and sector wide sentiment around communications infrastructure. Even with that backdrop, Viasat currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The rest of this article will compare different valuation methods to see what the price may be implying, then finish with a way to put those valuation results into a broader context.

Viasat scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Viasat Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what Viasat stock might be worth by projecting future free cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It focuses on the cash the company could generate for shareholders rather than reported earnings.

For Viasat, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $360.3 million. Analysts and extrapolated estimates in this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model project Free Cash Flow reaching $578.1 million by 2030, with a series of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back to present value. All of these cash flows are assessed in dollar terms, even if the operating or reporting currencies differ.

Bringing these discounted cash flows together, the model produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.54 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $76.69, the DCF output suggests Viasat is about 18.8% above this intrinsic estimate. Based on this method alone, the stock appears to be trading on the expensive side.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Viasat may be overvalued by 18.8%. Discover 42 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Story Continues

VSAT Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Viasat.

Approach 2: Viasat Price vs Sales

For Viasat, the preferred multiple is Price to Sales, which can be useful when earnings are volatile or not yet a reliable guide, but revenue is more stable. It ties the stock price directly to the sales the company generates, without relying on current profit levels.

In general, growth expectations and risk shape what looks like a reasonable P/S ratio. Companies with stronger expected growth and lower perceived risk often trade on higher P/S multiples, while slower or riskier businesses tend to command lower ones.

Viasat currently trades on a P/S ratio of 2.26x. That is very close to the Communications industry average of 2.26x and sits well below the broader peer average of 10.70x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary "Fair Ratio" of 3.01x for Viasat. This Fair Ratio is designed to reflect what investors might pay on a P/S basis after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

Because it is tailored to Viasat, the Fair Ratio can often be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or industry averages. With the current P/S of 2.26x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 3.01x, the stock appears undervalued on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUEDNasdaqGS:VSAT P/S Ratio as at Jun 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Viasat Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Viasat to the numbers by linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value, and then a straight comparison of that Fair Value with today's price. This all happens inside an easy tool on the Community page that updates automatically as new news or earnings arrive and that can reflect very different perspectives, such as a more cautious view closer to the US$49 Fair Value or a more optimistic view closer to US$92.64.

For Viasat however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Viasat Narratives:

Each one takes the same business facts and valuation tools you have just seen, then pushes them toward a different conclusion about what the current share price might be pricing in. Reading both is a useful way to pressure test your own view on Viasat stock before making any decisions.

Here is how the bullish and bearish narratives line up based on the data provided.

🐂 Viasat Bull Case

Fair value: US$92.64

Gap between this fair value and the last close of US$76.69: Viasat trades about 17.2% below this narrative fair value estimate.

Revenue growth assumption in this narrative: 3.34% a year.

Views Viasat as well placed to use its MSS spectrum and ViaSat 3 constellation to broaden the serviceable market, including IoT, cloud and video connectivity, and government contracts, which could support higher free cash flow over time if execution matches expectations. Assumes margins can improve toward the wider US Communications industry level, with profit margin moving from a current loss position to 11.2%, which in turn would take earnings to about US$568.8m by around May 2029 if those assumptions play out. Works off a bullish analyst price target of US$92.64, which implies Viasat could trade on a future P/E of 33.9x those 2029 earnings, lower than the current industry P/E cited for US Communications stocks. Investors should stress test these inputs against their own expectations.

🐻 Viasat Bear Case

Fair value: US$49.00

Gap between this fair value and the last close of US$76.69: Viasat trades about 56.5% above this narrative fair value estimate.

Revenue growth assumption in this narrative: 3.33% a year.

Highlights pressure from low Earth orbit competitors, expanding fiber and 5G, and regulatory constraints, all of which could limit Viasat's ability to grow its broadband subscriber base and maintain pricing power across key markets. Emphasizes that high capital expenditure, leverage, and execution risk around ViaSat 3 and integration activities may weigh on free cash flow and margins if utilization, launches, or regulatory approvals fall short of expectations. Anchors on a bearish analyst price target of US$49.00, which assumes future earnings of about US$574.6m by 2029 valued at a 16.6x P/E, and concludes that, on these inputs, the current share price embeds optimism that some analysts do not share.

If you find that your own view on Viasat lines up more with one of these narratives, you can use it as a base case and then adjust the assumptions to match your expectations about revenue, margins, capital intensity, and competition before deciding how the stock fits into your portfolio and risk tolerance.

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Viasat on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for Viasat? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NasdaqGS:VSAT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include VSAT.

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