Oil slides to six-week low as traders bet U.S.-Iran framework deal is near

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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Crude oil futures sank to their lowest since mid-April as the U.S. and Iran appeared close to reaching a preliminary agreement that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump said in a lengthy social media post Friday morning that he will make a "final determination" on a deal, following lingering uncertainty over the status of an agreement that would extend the current truce by 60 days, during which discussions would continue to address the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Iran's Fars news agency said [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-slightly-reports-potential-us-iran-ceasefire-deal-2026-05-29/] the agreement ​required Iran to open the strait without restrictions but that it would reopen the waterway "according to its own pre-determined arrangements," after having maintained it would regulate traffic, including charging fees to transit.

"The money flow is trading the 'risk' that we will have a peace deal over the weekend, with money generally flowing out of the energy and grain and oilseed markets," Arlan Suderman of StoneX wrote. "Traders will monitor the headlines through the weekend to see if they continue that trend on Sunday night or if they reverse it."

Yet with the war now in its third month, "the world's energy shock absorbers are rapidly eroding, and time is running out to reopen the Strait and stave off a hard landing" for oil prices, RBC Capital head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft said in a note.

Several vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-chevron-ceo-says] in recent days, highlighting the "very real" risks that remain for shipowners in the Persian Gulf whether or not a peace deal is signed, Chevron (CVX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CVX]) CEO Mike Wirth told Bloomberg.

"There still has been kinetic activity this week, some of which has been reported in the media, some of which has not," Wirth said, but added that "the psychology of the market has been this is closer to the end rather than the beginning."

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for July delivery fell 1.7% on Friday to $87.36/bbl, and front-month Brent (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) July crude slipped 1.8% to $92.05/bbl, the lowest settlement value since April 17 for both benchmarks.

WTI crude plunged 9.6% this week, its biggest weekly decline in six weeks, and Brent sank 11.1% for its steepest weekly loss in seven.

Front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) for July delivery finished little changed, rising 0.1% to $3.290/MMBtu, its highest settlement value since February 6.

ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE])

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