Ahead of the holiday shopping season: How has retail performed in 2025?

[3d illustration of a shopping cart with gift boxes and bag flying on the air on isolated light pink background with space for copy]
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Sticky inflation, rising healthcare premiums, and affordability concerns aren't deterring Americans from going shopping this year. In fact, they might be encouraging them to do so, with everyone trying to spot a good deal in the current environment. An estimated 187M people across the country are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation, which is 3M more people than the record high notched last year.

_Snapshot:_ Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to shop [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4524606-record-number-of-shoppers-expected-to-turn-out-during-thanksgiving-weekend---nrf], with around 70% (131M people) planning to take advantage of deals. Those numbers highlight the resilience of the American consumer, which continues to bolster the U.S. economy. Earlier this month, the NRF forecast that total holiday spending during November and December was expected to surpass $1T for the first time, with sales predicted to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.

"The holidays are an important part of many consumers' budgets, and that trend is especially true this season," said Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights.

STOCK RETURNS: The investing side of retail has been dismal at the sector level. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (SP500-25 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500-25]) and S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (SP500-30 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500-30]) have both flatlined this year, lagging the broader S&P 500 Index due to macro factors and strained household budgets, as well as a larger investor focus on high-growth sectors like AI. Standout retail performers have included discount stores like Dollar General (DG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DG]) and Dollar Tree (DLTR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DLTR]), up 34% YTD, as well as retail favorites Coca-Cola (KO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KO]) and Walmart (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT]), which are both ahead by 16% YTD. On the discretionary side, the biggest gainers have been Tapestry (TPR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TPR]), Ralph Lauren (RL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RL]), Wynn Resorts (WYNN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WYNN]) and Hasbro (HAS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAS]), all posting outsized YTD gains of between 40% to 60%.

MORE ON THE CONSUMER SECTOR

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