'Fasten your seatbelts'— BTIG strategists warn of coming turbulence

Investing.com -- The Nasdaq 100 has reached a milestone by trading above its 20-day moving average for 60 consecutive sessions, marking the second-longest streak in its history dating back to 1985, according to BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky.

The longest such streak ended in early 1999. While this impressive run suggests potential near-term turbulence, Krinsky indicates it’s unlikely to signal a major market peak.

Technical indicators show the Nasdaq 100 is approaching exhaustion based on weekly Bloomberg candle sessions, which are printing a 12 count. This metric previously reached 13 at the December 2024 peak, putting analysts on alert for a possible inflection point.

Seasonal factors also suggest caution. Adding to concerns about market froth, the BUZZ (NYSE:BUZZ) index shows a 15-week rate-of-change at 62%, exceeding levels seen during the zero interest rate policy era of 2020-2021.

"Seasonals aren’t bearish yet, but the best stretch of the summer is now behind us," Krinsky wrote in a note on Sunday.

The upcoming week will be dominated by Q2 earnings.

"We’re still wary of chasing the SPX at these levels given underappreciated tariff/inflation risks and elevated valuations," Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli said.

"Earnings so far have been unmistakably positive – not only is Corporate America managing through a challenging macro landscape with aplomb, but underlying conditions aren’t as bad as some feared."

Among biggest reports are Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which reports Wednesday after market. Investors will have a key read on digital ads, AI, and cloud. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also reports Wednesday after market and the focus will be on margins, deliveries, and full-year outlook.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is due to report Thursday after market as market participants prepare to hear on progress on AI and data center turnaround.