Greenbrier downgraded at Susquehanna on low railcar orders

[Railway track in the evening in sunset]
LeManna/iStock via Getty Images

Greenbrier (GBX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GBX]) down 3.3% in Thursday's trading as Susquehanna downgrades the railroad equipment supplier to Neutral from Positive with a $52 price target, citing the company's declining order backlog.

Greenbrier (GBX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GBX]) is "positioned for higher highs and lower lows (manufacturing efficiencies; leasing shift), but without visibility on both improved builds and tariff clarity, we're hopping on the sidelines," Susquehanna's Harrison Bauer says, downgrading shares "until we can get constructive on applying early-cycle valuation or visibility into capitalizing FY28."

The company's backlog is at its lowest level since 2010 at ~13.8K units after receiving its lowest order total in nearly 10 years, which management attributed to broad-based capital investmenthesitancy, but Bauer says the backdrop is driving lower visibility into 2027, adding that recovery may not materialize until H2 2027 even if orders start to improve.

The analyst says he expects a stronger recovery later in 2027 or into 2028 rather than a near-term inflection, adding that "rising backlogs historically support elevated early-cycle multiples, but until we have confidence or evidence in backlog/orders improving, we're not willing to underwrite a higher multiple."

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