Oil rallies as major Ukraine drone strike highlights vulnerability of Russian crude flows

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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Oil futures rebounded Friday, with WTI back at the $60/bbl level after a major Ukrainian drone and missile strike on a key Russian Black Sea port revived concerns about supply disruptions.

The attack on the Novorossiysk port, which handles oil cargoes from Russia as well as oil exports from Kazakhstan, was one of the biggest on Russian oil-exporting infrastructure in recent months and reportedly caused a temporarily suspension [https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-drones-damage-ship-dwellings-oil-depot-russias-novorossiysk-2025-11-14/] of oil exports - amounting to the equivalent to 2.2 million bbl/day, or 2% of global supply.

Ukraine said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility in nearby Engels overnight.

"The intensity of these attacks has increased; it's much more often. Eventually, they could hit something that causes lasting disruption," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a note.

Also, Iran seized an oil tanker en route to Singapore after it passed the Strait of Hormuz. in the first major escalation of the tensions in the Middle East region since the Israel-Iran war in June.

Still, WTI futures remain down 16% YTD on growing expectations of an oversupplied market, with U.S. crude inventories rising last week in a sign of weaker demand in the world's largest consumer, and OPEC estimating that global supply outpaced demand in Q3 and forecasting a significant supply surplus.

Crude price gains continue to be limited by the fundamental backdrop, Joseph Dahrieh of Tickmill said in a note, with groups including the IEA forecasting a significant supply surplus, adding that "the market could remain under pressure despite occasional bounces driven by geopolitical headlines."

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for December delivery closed +2.4% on Friday to $60.09/bbl, and front-month Brent December crude finished +2.2% to $64.39/bbl; for the week, Nymex and Brent ended up 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

U.S. natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) fell Friday but settled well above the day's lows, with the front-month Nymex December contract -1.7% to $5.5660/MMBtu after the EIA reported inventories rose by a higher than forecast 45 Bcf last week to 3,960 Bcf, or 172 Bcf above the five-year average; for the week, natgas rose for the fourth consecutive week, up 5.8%.

ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE])

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), finished +1.8% this week.

Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Spruce Power (SPRU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPRU]) +90.8%, Orion Energy Systems (OESX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OESX]) +39.9%, FTC Solar (FTCI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FTCI]) +26.1%, Baytex Energy (BTE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BTE]) +25.4%, Braskem (BAK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAK]) +23%, Drilling Tools International (DTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DTI]) +20.8%, Smart Sand (SND [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SND]) +19.6%, Nexa Resources (NEXA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NEXA]) +19%, Albemarle (ALB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ALB]) +18.5%, Canadian Solar (CSIQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CSIQ]) +17.5%.

Top 10 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: ESS Tech (GWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GWH]) -37.8%, Nuscale Power (SMR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SMR]) -26%, New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUAI]) -25.2%, American Resources (AREC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AREC]) -24.7%, Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOSE]) -24.4%, ProFrac Holding (ACDC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ACDC]) -24%, Sable Offshore (SOC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SOC]) -21.5%, Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AESI]) -19.8%, American Battery Technology (ABAT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ABAT]) -18.7%, Bloom Energy (BE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BE]) -17.2%.

Source: Barchart.com

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