Commodity Roundup: Oil prices steady as markets weigh China data, trade talks

[oil barrels]
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Oil prices were steady on Monday after a weekly gain, as investors weighed economic data from China and looked ahead to U.S.-China trade talks in London, hoping a potential deal could lift the global outlook and support fuel demand.

Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) was little changed at $66.46 a barrel at the time of writing, while WTI futures (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) +0.03% at $64.60.

China’s export growth fell to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs hit shipments, according to new data, while factory-gate deflation worsened to its deepest level in two years, intensifying pressure on the world’s second-largest economy both domestically and globally.

China, a key importer of many commodities, saw its trade surplus widen sharply to $103.22 billion in May, more than market expectations of $101.3 billion. The increase came as exports grew while imports fell more than anticipated.

"The oil market strengthened over the last week thanks to a variety of global events, with the ICE Brent Aug-25 contract settling almost 5.9% higher. Canadian wildfires provided support, while the market is digesting announced supply hikes for July from OPEC+," ING analysts said.

"It’s no surprise that with the market moving higher, speculators increased their net long in oil. Speculators bought 42,496 lots in NYMEX WTI over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 163,078 lots as of last Tuesday," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said.

The US market has been more constructive recently, which is also reflected in the narrowing of West Texas Intermediate’s (WTI) discount to Brent. The Canadian wildfires, which led to some production shut-ins, provided some relative support to WTI, they added.

Arabica coffee pieces meanwhile extended gains last week, up 4.6% on the week amid a decline in stockpiles. The latest data shows that total coffee stocks at US port warehouses monitored by the ICE exchange declined for a fifth straight session to 826.5k bags, the lowest since 1 May.

ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG])

MORE ON BRENT FUTURES, CRUDE OIL FUTURES

* WTI Crude, Brent Crude Forecast: WTI Rally On Pause At Key Resistance Level [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4792782-wti-crude-brent-crude-forecast-wti-rally-on-pause-at-key-resistance-level]
* OPEC+ Oil Production And Brent Crude: Key Factors Driving Price Fluctuations [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4792131-opec-plus-oil-production-and-brent-crude-key-factors-driving-price-fluctuations]
* Macro Insights From May 2025: Tariff Relief, Bull Trap Warnings, And Rising Debt Concerns [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4791702-macro-insights-from-may-2025-tariff-relief-bull-trap-warnings-and-rising-debt-concerns]
* Venezuela is said to prep 50% gasoline price hike amid oil revenue squeeze [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4456396-venezuela-is-said-to-prep-50-percent-gasoline-price-hike-amid-oil-revenue-squeeze]
* Gold climbs despite stronger dollar, oil heads for weekly gain as U.S.-China trade talks resume [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4456089-gold-climbs-despite-stronger-dollar-oil-heads-for-weekly-gain-as-us-china-trade-talks-resume]