Crude oil soars by most in three years as market weighs wide range of Middle East outcomes

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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Crude oil futures scored their largest single-day gains in more than three years on Friday after Israel launched air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites and other military targets - but not oil infrastructure - raising the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East.

The strikes have not affected oil supplies so far, but the calculus has now changed in a market that for most of this year has been more concerned about a looming surplus holding down prices, with OPEC+ unwinding production cuts and output rising in places like Brazil and Guyana, while President Trump's trade war threatens demand.

Even as some analysts believe the oil market may escape relatively unscathed, the uncertainty over how strongly Iran will respond, whether Israel will launch further attacks, and how the U.S. may react has forced traders to price in a wide range of possible outcomes [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/oil-market-long-numb-to-war-risk-confronts-weekend-of-worry].

The big risk that could send oil much higher would be a military conflict around the Strait of Hormuz that would limit shipping out of the Persian Gulf, which analysts at J.P. Morgan speculated could push crude to $120/bbl [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4457675-an-attack-on-iran-can-push-oil-to-120bbl-cpi-to-5-jp-morgan-says], although most observers see this as unlikely.

Goldman Sachs has factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium to its oil price forecast following Israel’s attack against Iran, but the bank does not anticipate disruptions to Middle East supply, and still expects Brent crude and WTI prices will fall to $59/bbl and $55/bbl in Q4, respectively, and dropping further to $56 and $52 in 2026, thanks largely to strong supply growth outside U.S. shale.

"The potential of further escalation in the Middle East implies that the short-term risks to our price forecast are now skewed to the upside on net," Goldman wrote, but it still sees downside risks in the medium term due to OPEC+ supply increases and persistent uncertainty over global trade.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for July delivery ended +7.2% to $72.98/bbl, its highest settlement since February 11 and biggest one-day percentage gain since March 17, 2022, front-month August Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) closed +7% to $74.23/bbl, its best settlement value since April 2 and biggest one-day percentage gain since March 21, 2022.

U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures (HO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HO1:COM]) soared to the highest level since February 27, settling +7.7% to $2.3587/gal, its largest one-day percentage gain since April 28, 2022, as analysts warned that diesel supply is the most exposed [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diesel-most-exposed-middle-east-conflict-us-futures-surge-8-2025-06-13/] to the conflict in the Middle East; ULSD jumped 11% for the week.

Front-month Nymex RBOB gasoline (XB1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XB1:COM]) for July delivery ended +3.9% to $2.2276/gal, its best one-day percentage gain since October 10, 2024; for the week, RBOB rose 7.2%.

U.S. natural gas rose Friday on the back of oil's gains, as the front-month Nymex July contract (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) finished +2.5% to $3.581/MMBtu, but still fell 5.3% for the week.

The Nymex and Brent crude oil benchmarks jumped 13% and 11.7%, respectively, for the week

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG])

The energy sector outperformed throughout the day, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]) +1.7% on Friday, extending this week's advance to 5.7%.

Six of the top 15 gainers on Friday's S&P 500 leaderboard were in the oil and gas sector: Halliburton (HAL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAL]) +5.5%, APA Corp. (APA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/APA]) +5.3%, EOG Resources (EOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG]) +3.9%, Occidental Petroleum (OXY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OXY]) +3.8%, Diamondback Energy (FANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FANG]) +3.7%, Targa Resources (TRGP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TRGP]) +3.3%.

Other noteworthy gainers in Friday's trading included Matador Resources (MTDR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTDR]) +4.3%, Murphy Oil (MUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MUR]) +4.2%, Antero Resources (AR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AR]) +4.1%, Range Resources (RRC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RRC]) +3.3%, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NOG]) +3.2%, Permian Resources (PR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PR]) +3.2%, Devon Energy (DVN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DVN]) +3%, ConocoPhillips (COP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COP]) +2.4%, EQT Corp. (EQT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EQT]) +2.4%, Exxon Mobil (XOM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM]) +2.2%.

Top 20 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Robin Energy (RBNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RBNE]) +409.1%, Houston American Energy (HUSA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HUSA]) +220.8%, Indonesia Energy (INDO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INDO]) +101.5%, Icon Energy (ICON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ICON]) +73.8%, Mexco Energy (MXC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MXC]) +73.8%, US Energy (USEG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USEG]) +70%, Critical Minerals (CRML [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRML]) +48.2%, KLX Energy Services (KLXE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KLXE]) +41.7%, Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]) +33.8%, Gran Tierra Energy (GTE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GTE]) +28.8%, Solaredge Technologies (SEDG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SEDG]) +28.1%, W&T Offshore (WTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WTI]) +28%, Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTR]) +26.7%, Oklo (OKLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OKLO]) +26.6%, Zeo Energy (ZEO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZEO]) +25%, Vital Energy (VTLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VTLE]) +24.9%, Top Ships (TOPS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TOPS]) +23.5%, Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MARPS]) +20.8%, Transocean (RIG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIG]) +20.3%, MP Materials (MP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MP]) +18.8%.

Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Hycroft Mining (HYMC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HYMC]) -28.7%, Perpetua Resources (PPTA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PPTA]) -26.1%, Foremost Clean Energy (FMST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FMST]) -25.1%, OMS Energy Technologies (OMSE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OMSE]) -18.3%, Lightbridge (LTBR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LTBR]) -18.1%.

Source: Barchart.com

MORE ON CRUDE OIL

* XLE: Everything You Need To Know About Leading Energy ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4794650-xle-everything-you-need-to-know-about-leading-energy-etf]
* Oil Soars On Middle East Escalation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4794571-oil-soars-on-middle-east-escalation]
* OPEC+ Move To Defend Market Share [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4794509-opec-plus-move-to-defend-market-share]