Is NiSource (NI) Pricing Look Stretched After 27.5% One Year Share Price Rise?

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If you are wondering whether NiSource at around US$47.05 is offering fair value or a stretched price, it helps to look beyond the headline share price and into what the market is really paying for. The stock has eased about 1% over the last week and is roughly flat over the last month, yet it is still up 11.6% year to date and 27.5% over the past year, which hints that expectations and perceived risk have shifted over different time frames. Recent attention on regulated utilities and their role in long term energy infrastructure planning has kept NiSource in focus, including how it balances investment needs with customer affordability and regulatory oversight. At the same time, discussion around utility balance sheets and funding costs has encouraged investors to recheck how much they are willing to pay for this kind of cash flow profile. According to Simply Wall St's valuation model, NiSource scores 0 out of 6 on its value checks, which you can see in full in its valuation score. The next sections will break down the usual valuation approaches while hinting at a more complete way to think about what the stock is worth.

NiSource scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: NiSource Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Analysis

The Dividend Discount Model looks at what you are paying today versus the stream of dividends you might reasonably expect to receive in the future. It ties dividend growth to how efficiently a company reinvests its earnings and how much it pays out to shareholders.

For NiSource, Simply Wall St uses a current dividend per share of about US$1.36, a return on equity of 9.07% and a payout ratio of roughly 61.6%. Plugging these into the standard DDM framework gives an implied dividend growth rate of about 3.48%, based on retained earnings being reinvested at that 9.07% return. This dividend growth input, together with the required return assumption, produces an estimated intrinsic value of about US$37.52 per share.

Compared with the current share price of around US$47.05, that model outcome suggests the stock is trading at roughly a 25.4% premium to its DDM value. In other words, the market is currently placing a higher value on NiSource’s dividend profile than this dividend-based model indicates.

Result: OVERVALUED in this DDM scenario

Our Dividend Discount Model (DDM) analysis suggests NiSource may be overvalued by 25.4%. Discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Story Continues

NI Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NiSource.

Approach 2: NiSource Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like NiSource, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It ties directly to how you might think about payback on your investment, using earnings as the anchor.

What counts as a “fair” P/E usually reflects two things: how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky that earnings stream appears. Higher growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one.

NiSource trades on a P/E of 23.44x, compared with an Integrated Utilities industry average of 19.21x and a peer average of 22.37x. Simply Wall St also provides a Fair Ratio of 23.04x, which is its estimate of an appropriate P/E after accounting for factors like NiSource’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio approach can be more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for company specific features rather than assuming all utilities deserve the same multiple. With NiSource’s actual P/E of 23.44x sitting close to the 23.04x Fair Ratio, the stock appears to be priced at roughly a reasonable level on this metric.

Result: ABOUT RIGHTNYSE:NI P/E Ratio as at May 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NiSource Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page let you turn your view of NiSource into a clear story that links what you think about its future revenues, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value, and then a simple comparison with today’s share price. Each Narrative updates automatically when new information such as earnings or GenCo related data center agreements is added.

Do you think there's more to the story for NiSource? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:NI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NI.

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