Crude oil wraps up worst week since June on potential Trump-Putin meeting, tariff tensions

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images

Oil futures ended flat on Friday but were slammed with their sharpest weekly losses since June as the market digested the OPEC+ decision to raise production by another 547K bbl/day in September and worries about the impact of U.S. import tariffs on global growth.

Oil held steady on the day as markets awaited a meeting in the coming days between President Trump and Russia's President Putin, with a Bloomberg report indicating the two are considering a deal that would lock in Russia's occupation of Ukraine territory seized during its invasion; the Trump administration is said to be working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the agreement, which is far from certain.

The potential meeting raises expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine that could lead to eased sanctions on Russia and its energy products.

Trade tensions have ramped up between Trump and buyers of Russian oil, with Trump doubling levies on all Indian imports to 50% as a penalty for the country taking Russian crude and threatening similar measures against China.

"If Russian flows are curtailed it would be a bullish aspect to prices. If, however, the current flows remain, the traders' focus will move back to OPEC+ increasing global supplies and a weaker seasonal demand that normally appears in the August through November time frame," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said in a note.

This week, front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for September delivery finished -5.1% to $63.88/bbl, and front-month October Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) closed -4.4% to $66.59/bbl, the worst showing for both benchmarks since the week ended June 27, while U.S. natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) continued to struggle near ~$3/MMBtu on concerns about ample storage and production, as the front-month Nymex September contract closed -3% this week to $2.99/MMBtu.

On Friday, Nymex crude finished flat, Brent crude closed down 0.2%, and natural gas gave up 2.5%.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (NYSEARCA:UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG])

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), finished the week -0.8%.

Top 20 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IDR]) +42.9%, Coeur Mining (CDE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CDE]) +34.2%, Atlas Lithium (ATLX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ATLX]) +33.6%, Hecla Mining (HL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HL]) +33.6%, Seacor Marine (SMHI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SMHI]) +33.5%, Vivopower International (VVPR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VVPR]) +30.4%, Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMR]) +30.3%, Ameresco (AMRC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMRC]) +26.7%, SSR Mining (SSRM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSRM]) +25.8%, Hallador Energy (HNRG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HNRG]) +25.3%, Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASTI]) +24.4%, Standard Lithium (SLI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLI]) +24%, Piedmont Lithium (PLL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PLL]) +23.8%, U.S. Antimony (UAMY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UAMY]) +23%, Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBT]) +22.5%, Gold Fields (GFI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GFI]) +22.3%, Primoris Services (PRIM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PRIM]) +22%, Critical Minerals (CRML [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRML]) +21.5%, Tidewater (TDW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TDW]) +20.8%, Forum Energy Technologies (FET [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FET]) +20.6%.

Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Namib Minerals (NAMM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NAMM]) -36.4%, Skycorp Solar (PN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PN]) -27.3%, FTC Solar (FTCI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FTCI]) -23.6%, Fusion Fuel Green (HTOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HTOO]) -20.2%, Genie Energy (GNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GNE]) -19.9%.

Source: Barchart.com

 

MORE ON CRUDE OIL

* WTI Crude Forecast: Risk Premium Fades, Supply Pressures Mount, Bearish Trend Ahead [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4811462-wti-crude-forecast-risk-premium-fades-supply-pressures-mount-bearish-trend-ahead]
* Commodities: Potential Trump-Putin Meeting Weighs On Oil [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4810817-commodities-potential-trump-putin-meeting-weighs-on-oil]
* Oil Market Sceptical Over How Impactful Additional Tariffs On India Would Really Be [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4810119-oil-market-sceptical-impact-additional-tariffs-india]