DLocal (DLO) Is Down 19.7% After Record Q1 Volume, Buybacks And Reaffirmed Guidance - What's Changed

DLocal Limited recently reported its first‑quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising to US$335.86 million while net income eased to US$41.98 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations was US$0.14, alongside completing a US$10.12 million buyback of 801,907 shares. The quarter also saw total payment volume surpass US$14.00 billion with very large year‑on‑year growth, record gross profit of about US$119 million, and management reaffirming full‑year guidance despite a one‑off tax adjustment and higher operating expenses. We’ll now examine how this record total payment volume and management’s reaffirmed guidance influence DLocal’s existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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DLocal Investment Narrative Recap

To own DLocal you need to believe in its role as core infrastructure for emerging market payments, with volume growth and new products offsetting pricing and regulatory pressure. The latest quarter, with TPV above US$14.0 billion and guidance reaffirmed despite softer net income, supports that thesis in the near term, while highlighting that margin pressure and one off tax items remain the key risks to watch rather than thesis breakers.

The Q1 2026 print is most closely tied to management’s decision to maintain full year 2026 operating profit guidance of 27.5% to 32.5% year over year. That stance connects directly to the main catalyst for the stock: whether DLocal can translate rapid TPV growth and expanding geography into sustained operating leverage, even as operating expenses run higher and take rates trend lower over time.

Yet investors should be aware that higher TPV concentration and structurally declining take rates could still...

Read the full narrative on DLocal (it's free!)

DLocal's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $385.4 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how DLocal's forecasts yield a $17.65 fair value, a 60% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesDLO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming DLocal could lift revenue to about US$2.7 billion and earnings to roughly US$487.7 million by 2029, which is a very different story from the more cautious focus on declining take rates and regulatory risks discussed earlier. After this quarter’s record TPV but softer net income, you may find that these bullish expectations and the risk of long term margin pressure now sit in sharper tension and could evolve from here.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on DLocal - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Story Continues

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

A great starting point for your DLocal research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision. Our free DLocal research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate DLocal's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DLO.

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