Real estate stocks decline for second straight week as rate cut hopes see push back

Real estate stocks fell for the second straight week as hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates continued to receive a setback.

Economists are pushing back their expected timing for the Fed's first interest-rate cut this year, citing higher inflation risks tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Goldman Sachs economists [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4563753-goldman-now-sees-first-fed-rate-cut-in-september-not-june] now expect the Federal Open Market Committee to begin easing policy in September, rather than June as previously forecast.

The bank still anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the second likely coming in December.

Barclays economists also see officials next easing policy in September instead of June, Bloomberg News [https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/TBUGV6T9NJLT] reported.

However, Barclays now expects only one rate cut this year—a 25 basis point cut in September to 3.25%-3.50%, followed by another 25 basis point reduction in March 2027.

The Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision next week. Investor focus will be glued to the Summary of Economic Projections [https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm], or the dot plot, which gives an idea of the interest rate path ahead.

Iran war continued to push up [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562033-real-estate-stocks-slump-as-iran-conflict-pushes-treasury-yields-up-muddles-path-to-rate-cuts] the government bond yields. The United States 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y]) rose by [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y/historical-price-quotes] 15 basis points from the prior week to 4.28%.

Mortgage rates surged to their highest level since September on Friday, CNBC News [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/mortgage-rates-7-month-high.html] reported.

The S&P 500 Real Estate Index Sector (SP500-60 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500-60]) was down 1.47% from the prior week to 267.94 points, while the accompanying State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLRE]) declined 1.49% to $42.25.

The Dow Jones REIT Indx Equity REIT Total Return Index (REIT:IND [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REIT:IND]) fell 1.35%, while the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index dipped 1.53%.

WEEKLY WINNERS & LOSERS

Among largecap stocks, CoStar Group (CSGP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CSGP]) topped the weekly losers, retreating 9.82% from the prior week to close at $43.63.

The shares sank after the real estate services provider faced [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562818-costar-stock-tanks-after-investor-criticizes-recent-change-in-reporting-structure] criticism by its investor, D. E. Shaw, over reduced financial transparency resulting from a recent change in reporting structure.

"The segment reorganization appears designed to obscure the results of CoStar's persistently underperforming Homes.com business—just six weeks after management made new performance commitments to shareholders for that same business," said the open letter by D. E. Shaw to the CoStar board.

Meanwhile, CoStar defended [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4563137-costar-defends-change-in-reporting-structure-in-response-to-investor-criticism] the allegations, saying it has never reported Homes.com results as a separate segment.

Ironically, CSGP had stood out as the top gainer [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562033-real-estate-stocks-slump-as-iran-conflict-pushes-treasury-yields-up-muddles-path-to-rate-cuts] in the category last week.

Camden Property Trust (CPT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CPT]) (-5.56% W/W to $100.61), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMH]) (-5.12% W/W to $28.37), and AvalonBay Communities (AVB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AVB]) (-5.02% W/W to $168.96) were the other notable losers in the category.

Equinix (EQIX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EQIX]) (+3.49% W/W to $969.90) led the gainers among largecap stocks. The data center REIT on Tuesday announced [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562717-equinix-names-olivier-leonetti-as-cfo] the appointment of Olivier Leonetti as CFO, succeeding Keith Taylor.

For the midcap stocks, Medical Properties Trust (MPT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPT]) led the weekly losers, having pulled back by 12.43% week-over-week to $4.79.

The stock saw a sharp decline after a Tuesday announcement [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562898-medical-properties-trust-affirms-that-healthcare-systems-of-america-is-current-on-rent] that the hospital operator is aware that principals of tenant Healthcare Systems of America are engaged in litigation in which MPT isn't involved. Separately, it sent certain ordinary course legal notices to HSA that are intended to protect MPT's legal interests.

Americold Realty Trust (COLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COLD]) (-11.03% W/W to $11.13) and National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NSA]) (-9.40% W/W to $30.94) were the other major decliners.

For the gainers, The St. Joe Company (JOE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JOE]) stood out with a 2.26% rise from the prior week to close at $70.48. Last week, JOE announced [https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20426605-the-st-joe-company-announces-new-builder-relationship-with-national-home-builder-pultegroup] a new builder relationship and execution of a contract for homesites with national home builder PulteGroup (PHM).

Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TCI]) (+5.65% W/W to $38.54) led the gainers among smallcap stocks. This week, the real estate operating company reported [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4564073-transcontinental-realty-investors-gaap-eps-of-0_25] a GAAP EPS of $0.25 for the three months ended December 31, 2025.

During the same period a year ago, the company had reported [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4423622-transcontinental-realty-investors-gaap-eps-of-0_01-revenue-of-11_79m] GAAP EPS of $0.01.

For the smallcap losers, Claros Mortgage Trust (CMTG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CMTG]) (-12.21% W/W to $2.30), AH REALTY TRUST (AHRT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AHRT]) (-12.06% W/W to $5.47), eXp World Holdings (EXPI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXPI]) (-11.86% W/W to $5.72), and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ABR]) (-11.74% W/W to $7.67) topped the list.

[S&P, Nareit]
Percentage-wise price change across real estate indices

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