U.S. yield curve steepens as 2s–10s spread hits widest since January 2022

[Yield Curve theme with Manhattan New York City]
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The U.S. Treasury yield curve has continued to steepen, with the gap between two-year and 10-year yields widening to its largest level since January 2022, according to Bloomberg data.

The spread, which had been deeply negative through much of 2023 as short-dated yields rose sharply above longer maturities, has now moved decisively into positive territory. Bloomberg’s 2s10s curve shows a steady climb since mid-2024, culminating in the widest differential in more than four years.

The data was posted by Bloomberg journalist Lisa Abramowicz on X.

A steeper curve reflects a combination of easing pressure at the front end and relatively firmer long-term yields. The two-year note is typically more sensitive to expectations around Federal Reserve policy, while the 10-year yield is more closely tied to long-run growth and inflation outlooks.

The move marks a clear reversal from the prolonged inversion that followed the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle in 2022 and 2023. Yield curve inversions have historically been viewed as recession warning signals, though the timing and reliability of that relationship varies.

Market attention recently has been dominated by developments in technology stocks and artificial intelligence-related investments. The shift in the Treasury curve suggests that fixed-income markets are sending their signal, one rooted in changing expectations for monetary policy and the economic outlook.

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