ZTO Express' EPS Estimates Northbound: Time to Buy the Stock?

ZTO Express (ZTO) performed well in the past year and has the potential to sustain the momentum in the future. The positive sentiment surrounding ZTO Express stock is evident from the fact that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the full-year 2026 earnings has been revised upward in the past 90 days. The consensus mark for full-year 2027 earnings has also been projected downward in the past 90 days.

The favorable estimate revisions indicate brokers' confidence in the stock.Zacks Investment Research

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Given this backdrop, the question now arises whether it is worth buying, holding, or selling the ZTO Express stock at current prices. Let us delve deeper to find out.

Tailwinds Working in Favor of ZTO Stock

ZTO Express' top line continues to benefit from the strong performance of the core express delivery services unit. Notably, revenues from the core express delivery business increased 22.5% year over year in first-quarter 2026, owing to 13.2% growth in parcel volume and an 8.2% increase in parcel unit price. Key account revenue, generated by direct sales organizations, grew 92.2% year over year, owing to an increase in e-commerce return parcels. Based on current market and operating conditions, ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance in the range of 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion (reflecting 10-13% year over year growth).

ZTO Express's efforts to reward its shareholders even in the present uncertain scenario are noteworthy. ZTO's board has approved a new share repurchase program in March 2026, authorizing the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its shares over the next 24 months, effective from March 20, 2026, through March 20, 2028. ZTO Express anticipates funding these repurchases utilizing its existing cash balance. Such shareholder-friendly efforts boost investor confidence and positively impact the company's bottom line.

Impressive Valuation Picture for ZTO Express

ZTO Express looks cheap from a valuation standpoint. Considering the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E-F12M), ZTO Express is trading at a discount compared to the industry.

The stock has a forward 12-month P/E-F12M of 10.31X compared with 16.40X for the industry over the past five years. The company's forward 12-month P/E-F12M ratio is also below the median level of 13.47X over the past five years. These factors indicate that the stock's valuation is attractive. ZTO Express has a Value Score of A.

ZTO P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months) Vs. IndustryZacks Investment Research

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Story Continues

ZTO Stock's Price Performance

Shares of ZTO Express have gained 24% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks  Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry's  16.7% increase. However, the company fared unfavorably when compared with that of other industry players, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) and Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR).

ZTO Stock's One-Year Price ComparisonZacks Investment Research

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Time to Buy ZTO Stock

Apart from being attractively valued, the upbeat performance of the core express delivery services segment is a positive for ZTO Express. The uptick was driven by an increase in parcel volume and an increase in parcel unit price. ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance to be in the range of 42.37 billion-43.52 billion, reflecting an increase of 10-13% year over year. ZTO Express's efforts to reward its shareholders look encouraging.

We believe that the positives surrounding the stock (as highlighted throughout the write-up) outweigh the concerns regarding higher selling, general and administrative expenses, which are pushing up operating expenses and hurting the bottom line, coupled with the highly competitive domestic express delivery market. We, therefore, suggest investors add ZTO Express stock to their portfolios for healthy returns. The company's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) further supports our thesis. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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