Crude oil gains on Russia sanctions potential, OPEC+ production pause report

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Crude oil futures jumped Friday, firming up gains for the week, on prospects of potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and reports that OPEC+ is considering a pause in production increases after August.

President Trump said he plans to make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday and reiterated criticism of Vladimir Putin, and the administration is in talks with Congress regarding a bill that would authorize steep sanctions on Russia, including a tariff on Russian oil and other commodities.

At least 85 senators have endorsed one sanctions bill that would impose 500% tariffs on China and India if they make any purchases of Russian energy.

Bloomberg reported Thursday that Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC+ members are discussing a pause in output hikes in October after next month's increase, as some members are said to be concerned that prices will sink further if they continue to bolster production after September.

Traders also are watching rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have sunk two cargo vessels and killed some crew members, potentially raising the risk of supply disruptions that has evaporated since the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Also on Friday, the International Energy Agency trimmed its 2025 demand growth estimate to ~700K bbl/day while raising its production growth forecast to 2.1M bbl/day from 1.8M bbl/day.

Oil prices "point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances," the IEA said in its monthly market report [https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2025], although inventory builds are "heavily concentrated in Chinese crude oil and U.S. gas liquids stocks, masking draws elsewhere."

Limiting the rally, Trump issued a new threat to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1, as well as blanket 15%-20% levies on most other trading partners; the president this week also announced a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and the same levy on goods from Brazil.

Oil prices rose for the week even as U.S. inventories saw a large build last week, rising by 7.1M barrels, but gasoline stocks declined 2.7M barrels and distillate inventories fell by 800K barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported.

This week, front-month Nymex crude for August delivery (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) closed +2.1% to $68.45/bbl, and front-month Brent crude for September delivery (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) finished +3% to $70.36/bbl, the highest settlement for both benchmarks since June 23 and their fifth weekly gain in six, but front-month August U.S. natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) ended -2.8% to $3.314/MMBtu, its third consecutive weekly decline.

On Friday, U.S. crude gained 2.8%, Brent crude climbed 2.5%, and Nymex natgas fell 0.7%.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (NYSEARCA:UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG])

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), was +2.4% this week.

Top 20 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NAK]) +54.3%, Ramaco Resources Class B (METCB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/METCB]) +44.5%, MP Materials (MP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MP]) +41.7%, Ramaco Resources (METC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/METC]) +39.2%, Houston American Energy (HUSA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HUSA]) +29.2%, Standard Lithium (SLI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLI]) +28.9%, Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IDR]) +28.3%, Ideal Power (IPWR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IPWR]) +26.4%, Enovix (ENVX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ENVX]) +23.5%, U.S. Antimony (UAMY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UAMY]) +22.5%, Avino Silver & Gold (ASM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASM]) +20.6%, PBF Energy (PBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBF]) +18.9%, Perpetua Resources (PPTA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PPTA]) +18.3%, Nextdecade (NEXT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NEXT]) +17.3%, Centrus Energy (LEU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LEU]) +17.5%, Icon Energy (ICON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ICON]) +17.5%, Endeavour Silver (EXK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXK]) +14.9%, Venture Global (VG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VG]) +14.9%, Delek US Holdings (DK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DK]) +14.8%, Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]) +14.7%.

Top 10 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Blue Gold (BGL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BGL]) -80.1%, Foremost Clean Energy (FMST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FMST]) -20.8%, Brenmiller Energy (BNRG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNRG]) -20.8%, Montauk Renewables (MNTK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MNTK]) -19.9%, Drilling Tools International (DTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DTI]) -19.3%, Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASTI]) -18.5%, Collective Mining (CNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNL]) -17.7%, Namib Minerals (NAMM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NAMM]) -16.3%, Critical Minerals (CRML [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRML]) -13.8%, Genie Energy (GNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GNE]) -13.1%.

Source: Barchart.com

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