Nvidia price target boosted ahead of expected first quarter revenue beat

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) has a new $275 price target from UBS, up from $245, as the firm raised its outlook on stronger earnings power and expanding AI-driven demand.

The revision is based on a 19x multiple applied to revised 2027 earnings per share of $14.35, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s data center growth trajectory.

Nvidia is expected to deliver a strong first quarter performance, with UBS forecasting revenue of around $81 billion, implying a roughly $3 billion beat versus the midpoint of consensus estimates at $78 billion.

The bank also sees second-quarter guidance coming in “at least as good as investor bogeys” in the $90 billion to $91 billion range.

UBS said Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin chip and compute board production remains on track, though some system-level adjustments could affect timing. It noted that “some fine tuning on rack-level cooling issues seems to be pushing mass production for racks into the September/October timeframe,” but added that robust demand for Blackwell should help smooth near-term supply timing. The firm also said ODM partners could extend production into year-end, potentially offsetting any short delays.

Capital returns are expected to be a major focus in the upcoming results. UBS is watching for “both share repurchases and a potential increase in the dividend,” and sees a possible new buyback authorization that could approach $150 billion over the next 12 months. The firm added that investor pressure for a higher dividend is increasing, with the view that it could broaden the shareholder base.

UBS also highlighted rising hyperscale capital spending, noting that “US hyperscale capex expectations increased to $812 billion and $968 billion from prior $764 billion and $839 billion” for 2026 and 2027, led by higher forecasts from Microsoft and Meta.

On supply and demand dynamics, UBS pointed to expanding CoWoS packaging capacity and strong GPU shipment growth. It projects Nvidia could ship about 8.9 million GPUs in 2026 and 9.8 million in 2027, rising to roughly 15.4 million total compute units when including CPU and LPU products.

The firm said Nvidia’s messaging continues to emphasize a shift toward system-level value creation through deeper software integration and disaggregated inference architectures. UBS also highlighted an updated backlog disclosure from GTC, where Nvidia raised its prior $500 billion outlook (excluding Hopper) for 2025 to 2026 to over $1 trillion for 2025 to 2027, which it views as reinforcing a multi-year demand runway.

Nvidia is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 20 after US markets close. Shares last traded at $228, up 22% year-to-date.

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