Iran deal looks like a 30-day ceasefire extension - Eurasia Group

[Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz with white graphic lines representing global shipping lanes and maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Strategic oil transport concept]
Alones Creative

A new peace proposal being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran amounts to a 30-day ceasefire extension that has already angered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group.

The assessment comes after a Wednesday media report of a tense phone call between U.S. President Trump and Netanyahu a day earlier. According to Axios, Trump informed Netanyahu that mediators were working on a “letter of intent” that both the U.S. and Iran would sign to formally end the war in the Middle East and launch the 30-day negotiation window, during which reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues would be discussed.

"The deal on offer appears to include a statement of intent from either side re: an end to the war, followed by a 30-day period in which reopening the strait AND the nuclear issues are negotiated. In effect, a 30-day ceasefire extension. Still enough to infuriate Netanyahu," Brew wrote in a social media post on Wednesday.

One source briefed on the call told [https://www.axios.com/2026/05/20/trump-netanyahu-call-iran-peace-plan] Axios that Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the conversation, with Israeli and U.S. sources describing the two leaders as being in disagreement about the path forward. Qatar and Pakistan have been leading the mediation effort with input from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. is in the “final stages” [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4595392-trump-says-us-in-final-stages-of-iran-negotiations---report] of talks with Iran, sending oil (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]) (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]) prices and Treasury yields (TLT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT]) (SHY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY]) lower. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, the president offered a characteristically mixed message about the ongoing diplomatic efforts. “We’ll see what happens,” he said, adding that a deal will be reached or “we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen.”

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