Longest bond market drawdown on record hits 68 months

[Treasury bonds is shown on the conceptual business photo]
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images

The U.S. bond market is mired in its longest losing streak ever recorded, with no end in sight.

Charlie Bilello said the bond market has now been in drawdown for 68 months as of March 2026, “by far the longest in history.” The milestone puts the post-2020 bond bear market in a category all its own.

In a sign of a structural repricing, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index drawdown started in August 2020 and has persisted much longer than previous fixed-income slumps, which historically burned out within a year or so.

Bonds absorbed the initial blow from the pandemic-induced inflation shock, then weathered the Federal Reserve’s fastest tightening cycle in decades. Now, they face a market that keeps questioning how low rates can really go, as the war in Iran sends energy costs surging.

The question for bond-market investors is whether sticky inflation and a new oil shock keep the post-2020 drawdown alive even longer, as Fed officials assess energy-driven price pressures bleeding into broader inflation and near-term expectations.

[ Charlie Bilello]
Charlie Bilello

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