Assessing Hagerty (HGTY) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Mixed Fair Value Signals

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Event context and recent performance snapshot

Hagerty (HGTY) has drawn investor attention after recent trading left the stock about 21.7% lower year to date, with a past 3 months return of roughly an 18.3% decline and a one-month return of about a 7% decline.

See our latest analysis for Hagerty.

After a weak start to the year, with the share price down 21.7% year to date, short term momentum has been mixed, but a 1-year total shareholder return of 6.2% suggests longer term holders have fared differently.

If Hagerty’s recent swings have you thinking about portfolio balance, this can be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with 18 top founder-led companies

With Hagerty trading at US$10.30, annual revenue of about US$1.44b and net income of roughly US$25.7m, the key question is simple: is the recent weakness a buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.4% Undervalued

Hagerty’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $11.00, a touch above the last close at $10.30, and frames current pricing as roughly in line with cautious expectations.

Although the addressable pool of enthusiast and collector vehicles is expanding and Hagerty is adding policies at a double digit pace, the need to keep regulatory rate increases low to preserve its consumer value proposition could constrain pricing power and slow improvement in underwriting margins and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue growth, margin expansion and future earnings multiple have to line up to support that fair value? The full narrative spells out those numbers, the timing, and how much optimism is already baked in.

Result: Fair Value of $11.00 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative can shift quickly if operating costs stay elevated as Hagerty scales projects, or if high value auction volumes soften and marketplace fees become less predictable.

Find out about the key risks to this Hagerty narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Harsher Picture

While analyst targets and earnings based fair value point to only a 6.4% undervaluation, the Simply Wall St DCF model suggests something very different, with an estimated future cash flow value of $5.45 versus the current $10.30 share price. This implies the stock screens as expensive on this lens.

When two methods disagree this much, it usually comes down to which inputs you trust more: the earnings forecasts or the cash flow profile, and which one you think will matter most over time, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Story Continues

HGTY Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Hagerty for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment in the article leaning cautious, this may be a suitable time to act promptly, review the detailed data yourself, and form your own stance. To see what is driving optimism, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards

Ready to uncover more investment ideas?

If Hagerty has you rethinking your watchlist, do not stop here. Fresh ideas often come from comparing a few very different types of stocks side by side.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include HGTY.

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