Energy and commodities tend to rise in September, while the S&P declines

[Working Pumpjacks On Sunset]
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While September is on average the weakest month of the year for the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]), energy (VDE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VDE]), (FENY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FENY]), (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]) and commodity indices tended to rise, according to a market analysis by BofA Global Research.

September is the weakest month for the S&P 50 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]), declining 56% of the time on average by -1.17%, said Paul Ciana, economist and chief technical strategist at BofA. Energy, on the other hand, tended to rise on September 1.63% about 63% of the time, supported by oil and gold.

[In September, energy rises]
In September, energy rises (BofA Global Research, Bloomberg )

“After the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) made new all-time highs in August, September was down 61% of the time on average by -0.81%,” Ciana said. But a new record high in August “reduced the worst September drawdown to -8.54% from U.S. presidential cycle year one of -14.21% from all of -29.94%.”

Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) has tended to rise 69% of the time on Mondays and 63% of the time on Wednesday, with Wednesday showing an average gain of 0.3%, he said.

Since 1984, the average and median trends were up for oil in the month of September. When oil price was above the 200-day moving average, it tended to rally on Wednesdays; and when it was below the 200-day moving average, it tended to decline on Fridays.

When it comes to gold, since 1974, the average and median trends were up that month. However, over the past 10 years, the average and median trends have been slightly down, Ciana said.

“When gold was above the 200-day moving average – like now – price tended to rally on Tuesdays 63% of the time on average by 0.56%,” he said.

Ciana also said that the latter half of September of the toughest for the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]). “The last 10 days in year one of a U.S. presidential cycle the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) was down 71% of the on average by 1.58% and median of -0.8%.”

Energy ETFs: (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), (AMLP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMLP]), (VDE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VDE]), (XOP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOP]), (OIH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OIH]), (IXC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IXC])

Oil ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (OILK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OILK]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL])

Gold ETFs: (GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]), (IAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IAU]), (SGOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOL]), (OUNZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OUNZ]), (BAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAR]), (GDX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDX]), (GDXJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDXJ]), (NUGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUGT]), (RING [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RING]) (DUST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DUST])

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