Amg expects Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $290M-$305M and plans about $500M of 2026 buybacks, backed by record Q1 alternative flows

Earnings Call Insights: Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) Q1 2026

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* "AMG reported record results for the first quarter with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $317 million and economic earnings per share of $8.23, representing year-over-year growth of 39% and 58%, respectively," said (President, CEO & Director Jay Horgen).
* "Rising demand for liquid alternative strategies and ongoing strength in private markets fundraising generated record quarterly net client cash flows of more than $22 billion," said (President, CEO & Director Horgen), adding it "bring[s] net flows over the last 12 months to $52 billion, an organic growth rate of 7% over the period."
* "In the quarter... we repurchased shares at an elevated pace, deploying approximately $186 million," said (President, CEO & Director Horgen), and said this brought "share buybacks over the past 12 months to more than $700 million, a reduction of 10% in our shares outstanding."
* "In January, we completed our investment in BBH Credit Partners," and "in February, we announced a new partnership with Highbrook Investors" plus "an incremental minority investment in Garda Capital Partners," said (President, CEO & Director Horgen).
* "AMG's AUM was $882 billion, the highest level in our history," said (Chief Financial Officer Dava Ritchea), and "net client cash inflows of more than $22 billion marked our fourth consecutive quarter of positive and increasing net flows."

OUTLOOK

* "We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $290 million to $305 million... including seasonably lower net performance fees of up to $10 million," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).
* "Assuming an adjusted weighted average share count of 26.7 million, we expect second quarter economic earnings per share to be between $7.60 and $8.01," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea), adding that "the midpoint... represents approximately 45% growth versus Q2 2025."
* Compared with the prior quarter’s tone on Q1, the company previously guided, "We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $310 million to $330 million... including net performance fees of $40 million to $60 million," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea) on the Q4 2025 call.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* "We reported adjusted EBITDA of $317 million, which grew 39% year-over-year," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).
* "Fee-related earnings... grew 29% year-over-year," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea), attributing it to "positive organic growth, the positive impact of investment performance and margin expansion at some of our largest affiliates."
* "Net performance fee earnings of $49 million in the quarter increased $29 million from the prior year," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea), citing "Capula, Winton, AQR and ValueAct."
* On mix and flows by channel, "in liquid alternatives, our affiliates generated $25 billion in net inflows," and "our private market affiliates raised $4 billion in the quarter," while "in equities, net outflows of approximately $9 billion" weighed on results, said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).

Q&A

* William Katz, TD Cowen: Asked to "dig in" on the "4 verticals of opportunity" and "April" momentum; (President, CEO & Director Horgen) said, "our flows were broad-based," adding, "in the quarter, we had $29 billion in Alternative flows... Over the past year, we generated $90 billion in flows into alternatives," and said "in April, we've seen strong beta... our assets are at another all-time high."
* Alexander Blostein, Goldman Sachs: Asked about wealth-channel appetite for Pantheon products amid "turbulence" and the "road map" for new products; (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea) said, "we remain constructive on the secular trend," and highlighted Pantheon vehicles including "P-BUILD," "P-SECC," and "P-PEXX," while (President, CEO & Director Horgen) said, "this is actually an opportunity to differentiate" and cited "the newly registered BBH Opportunity Credit Fund."
* Daniel Fannon, Jefferies: Asked if market dislocations create more opportunity for new investments; (President, CEO & Director Horgen) said, "public market valuations for alternatives are way down," and added, "we have an expectation" this will "trickle into the M&A market" and "pricing has gotten better for us as we look forward."
* Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank: Pressed on tax-aware strategies’ contribution and distribution-platform dynamics; (President, CEO & Director Horgen) said tax-loss harvesting "has been around... since 1993," and added, "Long/short strategy in wealth account for just 8% of our assets under management" and "less than 8% of our EBITDA last year in the first quarter."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Slightly negative (analysts): Analysts repeatedly returned to concentration and distribution questions, including, "the investment community... has gotten myopically focused on AQR," (William Katz, TD Cowen) and "we... are getting more questions on the tax aware strategy" (Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank).
* Slightly positive (management): Management emphasized breadth and continuity, including "our flows were broad-based" and "we are not aware of anything that changes our positive outlook" (President, CEO & Director Horgen), and "we are confident in our ability to generate meaningful incremental value over time" (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).
* Versus last quarter: In Q4 2025, management’s tone was more celebratory and transition-focused, including "one of the strongest years in our company's history" (CEO & Director Jay Horgen) and a senior leadership change: "Tom has informed us... he is ready to take a next step in his career" (CEO & Director Horgen).

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Growth narrative shifted from full-year recap to record quarterly execution: Q4 2025 emphasized "full year economic earnings per share of $26.05" and "approximately $29 billion in annual net client cash flows" (CEO & Director Jay Horgen), while Q1 2026 emphasized "record quarterly net client cash flows of more than $22 billion" and "record assets under management and record fee-related EBITDA" (President, CEO & Director Horgen).
* The flow discussion broadened in Q1 2026 away from single-firm framing: "AMG is truly a diverse business" (President, CEO & Director Horgen) versus Q4 2025’s heavier emphasis that "Pantheon and AQR are our 2 largest and long-standing affiliates" (CEO & Director Horgen).
* Capital return remained central, but Q1 2026 increased specificity for the year: "for the full year, we expect to repurchase approximately $500 million" (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea) versus Q4 2025, "we anticipate repurchasing at least $400 million in shares in 2026" (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* On product/channel noise and potential spillover, management said it was "monitoring the broader industry dynamics" (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea) and noted "near-term growth may be more muted due to traditional direct lending trends" for P-SECC (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).
* On equity-strategy pressure, "net outflows of approximately $9 billion... reflected ongoing industry and performance headwinds," said (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea), while highlighting "pockets of strength" including "consistent positive net flows at Artemis" (Chief Financial Officer Ritchea).

FINAL TAKEAWAY

AMG management described Q1 2026 as a record quarter led by alternatives-driven inflows, record AUM, and year-over-year earnings growth, while reiterating that flows were “broad-based” across multiple alternative verticals rather than dependent on any single affiliate or product. Management paired that message with Q2 guidance for lower seasonal performance fees and reiterated an ongoing capital return plan, alongside continued deployment into new and existing affiliate partnerships, positioning capital allocation and alternatives mix-shift as the primary levers shaping earnings power going forward.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/amg/earnings/transcripts]

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