Firearm background checks rise sequentially in March

[Pile of rifle bullets creating a border]

The FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System reported on Thursday that firearm background checks rose 13.9% on a sequential basis in March to 2,450,414. Firearm background checks were also higher than the level seen in January. Background checks were down 4.8% on a year-over-year basis. The background checks have correlated closely to actual firearm sales in the past.

The all-time high for firearm background checks was March 2021, when 4,691,738 firearm background checks were done in a single month. FBI firearm background checks then fell progressively later in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Industry insiders expect firearm demand in 2026 to be broadly similar to 2025, with macro headwinds such as inflation from tariffs, interest rates, and consumer spending pressure as the main risk rather than a collapse in underlying interest.

Stocks that have some connection to firearm demand developments to varying degrees include Smith & Wesson (SWBI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SWBI]), Sturm Ruger (RGR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RGR]), Vista Outdoor, Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPWH]), Ammo (POWW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/POWW]), ammunition manufacturer Olin Corporation (OLN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OLN]), outdoors retailer American Outdoor Brands (AOUT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AOUT]), hunting gear seller Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DKS]), gunfire locator firm SoundThinking (SSTI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSTI]), ammunition provider National Presto Industries (NPK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NPK]), taser maker Axon Enterprise (AXON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AXON]), and retailer Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASO]).

MORE ON FIREARM STOCKS

* Smith & Wesson: Hope You Learned Your Lesson [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4880057-smith-and-wesson-hope-you-learned-your-lesson]
* Sturm, Ruger & Company: New Platforms And Entry Into The Accessory Business [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4879375-sturm-ruger-and-company-new-platforms-and-entry-into-the-accessory-business]
* Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4879262-smith-and-wesson-brands-inc-swbi-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript]
* Sturm, Ruger & Company appoints new CFO [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4569813-sturm-ruger-company-appoints-new-cfo]
* Ruger says Beretta proposes partial tender offer for up to 20% stake [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4568961-ruger-says-beretta-proposes-partial-tender-offer-for-up-to-20-stake]