Is Grifols (BME:GRF) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Swings?

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Wondering whether Grifols at €9.27 is offering value right now, or if the recent price is already baking in most of the good news? The stock has had a mixed run, with a 3.5% gain over the last 7 days, an 11.9% decline over 30 days, a 17.2% decline year to date, but an 11.6% return over the past year. These swings sit against a longer track record of a 3.6% return over 3 years and a 57.6% decline over 5 years, which can influence how you think about risk and patience. Together, these figures frame the question of whether the current price reflects temporary sentiment or something more structural. Grifols currently holds a valuation score of 5 out of 6, which suggests several checks point to the shares looking undervalued. The next step is to compare the standard valuation methods, before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Find out why Grifols's 11.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Grifols Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash Grifols is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those amounts back into today’s money to estimate what the whole business could be worth per share.

Grifols last twelve months free cash flow stands at about €657.2 million. Analysts have specific estimates for the next few years, and beyond that the cash flows are extrapolated using the same 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. On this basis, free cash flow for 2030 is projected at €1,618.0 million, with a full set of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 discounted back to present values.

Putting all of those discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of about €25.21 per share. Against the current share price of €9.27, this implies an intrinsic discount of roughly 63.2%, which points to Grifols trading well below this DCF estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Grifols is undervalued by 63.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 250 more high quality undervalued stocks.GRF Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Grifols.

Approach 2: Grifols Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Grifols, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each euro of current earnings. It lets you compare the share price with how much profit the business is already generating, rather than focusing only on future estimates.

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In broad terms, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support a higher “normal” P/E ratio, while slower growth or higher risk usually justify a lower one. Grifols currently trades on a P/E of 15.7x. That sits below the Biotechs industry average of 25.1x and the peer group average of 31.7x, which suggests the market is applying a lower multiple than many comparable companies.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Grifols is 31.5x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk factors. Because it incorporates these company specific inputs, the Fair Ratio can give a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison to peers or an industry average. Set against the current 15.7x P/E, the 31.5x Fair Ratio indicates the shares are trading below this fair multiple estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUEDBME:GRF P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Grifols Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, and on Simply Wall St this takes the form of Narratives, which let you connect your view of Grifols’ future with numbers like revenue, earnings, margins and a Fair Value that you can compare directly to today’s price.

A Narrative is your story about the company written in financial terms. Instead of just accepting a single DCF or P/E output, you choose assumptions for things like how fast sales might grow, what margins could look like, and what P/E you think is reasonable, and the platform turns that into a Fair Value estimate.

Because Narratives live inside the Community page and are used by millions of investors on Simply Wall St, you can quickly see how your view lines up with others and use the gap between Fair Value and the current market price to help decide if the stock sits on your watchlist, looks closer to a buy, or feels more like a candidate to reduce.

These Narratives also refresh when new information such as earnings releases, analyst target changes like the €23.0 high case or the €9.0 low case, or updated revenue and margin assumptions are added, so your Grifols view can stay current instead of being a one off spreadsheet exercise.

For Grifols however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Grifols Narratives:

🐂 Grifols Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: €15.08

Implied discount to this fair value vs the €9.27 share price: around 38.6%.

Revenue growth assumption: about 5.6% a year.

Analysts in this camp expect steady revenue growth supported by plasma therapies, new product launches and wider market reach. They factor in improving margins, gradual deleveraging and stronger free cash flow as operations and the balance sheet normalise. Their consensus price target of €16.48 sits above both the current share price and this fair value estimate, but still depends on earnings reaching about €893.1m by 2028 and a future P/E of 17.2x.

🐻 Grifols Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: €9.00

Implied premium to this fair value vs the €9.27 share price: about 3.0% overvalued.

Revenue growth assumption: about 5.3% a year.

The bearish view places more weight on future competition from gene therapies and synthetic biologics that could limit long term demand for plasma products. It also reflects pressure from regulation, donor availability and higher operating and compliance costs that could constrain margins. Under this narrative, a €9.00 fair value lines up with the lowest analyst target, with 2028 earnings assumed at about €782.4m on a 10.5x P/E multiple and a 10.2% discount rate.

Both narratives rely on different views about how quickly revenue grows, how far margins improve and what P/E multiple is realistic a few years from now. Using them side by side can help you decide which set of assumptions feels closer to your own expectations before you commit to any position size or holding period.

Do you think there's more to the story for Grifols? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!BME:GRF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include GRF.MC.

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