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What will the world stocks be like in Q1 2023

What will the world stocks be like in Q1 2023

31 Oct 2022   |    214


The overall stock market investment in Q4/22 received positive factors from the recovery in the tourism sector. From the number of foreign tourists to Thailand this year that has the opportunity to exceed 10 million after the relaxation of covid 19 preventive measures. Also, some investments will be flown from the United States and Europe to invest in the stock market of emerging countries with a strong fiscal position and a well-recovered economy.

In Addition, the risk factor that affects investment is the overall US economy and Europe in the second half of the year 2022 and 2023 at the risk of slowing down until the regression while the rise of interest during a fragile economy increases the risk of NPL. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects the headline inflation to peak in Q3/22, while core inflation will peak in Q4/22.

Export industry  is an important part of Thailand's economy. Export products that continue to grow are food, agro-industrial, industrial products with supporting factors from the depreciation of the baht and lower shipping costs

On October 4 2023, Mr. Apichart Phobunjerdkul senior director Strategic Analysis Division TISCO Securities Company Limited said “an important indicator of the US economy is still good and relieve inflationary pressures expected to affect the US economy returned to expand more than 3% in the Q3/22 and Q4/22”

However, the US's economy is likely to enter a recession in the second half of 2023 because the FED would continuously raise the policy interest. It is expected to rise to 4.25-4.50% this year and 4.50-4.75% in 2023. 

Currently, the three major US stock indices are in bear state after falling more than -20% from the highest peak at the end of last year.

Tisco found out that it might take around 14 months and will decline around -34 % from the peak. Therefore, if the US’s stock market enters the bear state equivalent to the average in the past. We might see the lowest point of US’s stock market in Q1 to beginning of Q2 of 2023 around 10-12%

In Q4/22, there might be a positive impact from the US Mid-Term Elections Rally which the US stock market always gives positive returns averaging +7.3% with a confidence level up to 86%.


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References:

https://hoonsmart.com/archives/274507
https://mgronline.com/stockmarket/detail/9650000096476
https://www.infoquest.co.th/2022/241193
https://www.kaohoon.com/news/559185
https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/ConsumerInfo/Documents/HeadlineInflation19Jan2018.pdf
https://www.thairath.co.th/business/investment/stockexchange/2517487


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