Vivid Seats reaffirms 2026 outlook of $2.2B-$2.6B marketplace GOV and $30M-$40M adjusted EBITDA as app share exceeds 40%

Earnings Call Insights: Vivid Seats (SEAT) Q1 2026

MANAGEMENT VIEW

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"We entered fiscal year 2026 with a clear focus and road map to enhance our market position and financial trajectory" (CEO & Director Lawrence Fey), adding that "our first quarter results came in at the high end or above guidance" and that the sequential improvement "support[s] our confidence in returning to year-over-year growth in the second half of fiscal year 2026 and beyond."

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"We recently deployed an upgraded app checkout experience" (CEO & Director Fey) and said the company is "excited about the pipeline of enhancements to both our app and web properties that will be deployed in Q2 and Q3."

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"In Q1 2026, Vivid Seats app GOV was up 20% year-over-year" (CEO & Director Fey) and "Vivid Seats app share of GOV exceed[ed] 40% for the quarter," which he linked to the rewards program, lowest price guarantee, and product improvements.

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"We were pleased to launch a significant new private label partner during Q1 with performance already exceeding our expectations" (CEO & Director Fey), and he also noted an extension with "a large existing private label customer," while describing sequential private label revenue growth as supportive of a second-half return to growth.

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"Q1 2026 Marketplace GOV was $612 million" (Chief Financial Officer Joseph Thomas) and "Q1 2026 consolidated revenue was $126 million."

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"Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $9.5 million" (CFO Thomas), and he said cash "increased over $40 million in the first quarter to $144 million," citing improved profitability and seasonally strong working capital dynamics.

OUTLOOK

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"For fiscal year 2026, we continue to expect marketplace GOV in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $30 million to $40 million" (CFO Thomas), adding, "This outlook reflects continued execution of our operating plan and financial profile."

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Management did not provide quarterly revenue or EPS guidance in the prepared remarks or Q&A in this transcript.

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Compared with the prior quarter call, management again reaffirmed the same full-year marketplace GOV and adjusted EBITDA ranges, while shifting emphasis toward Q1 execution, app mix, and private label sequential improvement.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

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"Q1 2026 Marketplace GOV was $612 million compared to $581 million in Q4 2025" (CFO Thomas) and he characterized the sequential increase as notable given seasonality.

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"Marketplace take rate was 15.9% in Q1 2026 compared to 16.8% in Q4 2025" (CFO Thomas), and he attributed the change primarily to mix shift, adding, "We continue to expect near-term take rates to remain around 16% on a consolidated basis."

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"Adjusted EBITDA grew $8.5 million" (CFO Thomas) versus Q4 2025, which he tied to "a material reduction in operating costs relative to a growing GOV and revenue base."

Q&A

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Cameron Mansson-Perrone, Morgan Stanley: asked whether competitive intensity continued to rationalize and whether it differed by category; CEO Fey responded, "the moderation that we saw started in Q4 from StubHub on the paid search side has continued," while also noting "continued aggressiveness" by others and adding that StubHub has shifted toward "some price testing, price competitiveness" especially in sports.

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Ryan Sigdahl, Craig-Hallum: asked about Q1 and Q2-to-date industry volume and Vivid’s relative performance; CEO Fey said industry was "up a smidge" in Q1 (low single-digits) and Q2-to-date is "roughly flat," while also pointing to "increase in some cancellations of certain tours" and citing examples including "The Pussycat Dolls" and "Zayn Malik."

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Ryan Sigdahl, Craig-Hallum: asked about marketplace and ERP seller (SkyBox) share; CEO Fey said share was "sequentially steady" and has turned "up year-over-year" in their data, and on ERP sellers he said, "we have not seen any meaningful defections in recent months" while the company is "upgrading the platform to defend those relationships."

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Ralph Schackart, William Blair: asked about consumer demand and elevated oil prices; CEO Fey said there was "nothing we could point to" as a demand inflection, but added, "The lower end of the Vegas market has probably been the most palpable place where we've seen the impact of potential consumer weakness."

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Bradley Erickson, RBC: asked what could drive a high-end scenario and about AI/LLM economics; CEO Fey cited lapping the private label customer loss, potential additional private label wins, conversion lift from Q2/Q3 releases, and said, "the World Cup is probably the elephant in the room." On AI risk, he said they have seen "quite little progress on the top of the funnel disruption" and described LLMs as reliant on marketplaces for inventory and data.

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Steven McDermott, BofA: asked about the United partnership and OpEx posture; CEO Fey said United is "a nice tailwind" but "not an explicit needle mover," and on costs said, "the cost reductions that we've actioned are flowing through" with an objective of "operating leverage" and keeping G&A "steady."

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Thomas Forte, Maxim: asked about World Cup contribution and 2026 cash conversion; CEO Fey said World Cup is tracking "low to mid-single digits as a percentage of full year GOV" and added, "If you get to EBITDA in the $35 million to $40 million range, you'll be cash flow positive before considering working capital."

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Kunal Madhukar, Deutsche Bank: asked about app-vs-web customer mix and implied device growth; CEO Fey said app users skew to "the most frequent live event attendees" and "over-index to sports," and clarified, "when we reference app GOV, that's of our Vivid Seats properties," adding, "we're expecting the business to grow, app to grow disproportionately."

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Maria Ripps, Canaccord: asked whether private label can return to prior run-rate and about international priorities; CEO Fey said it is "unlikely" to reclaim pre-loss scale "in the near-term," while targeting growth "at or above" broader marketplace/industry rates; on international he said the company is "encouraged" but is prioritizing upgrades that benefit both international and North America.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

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Analysts: slightly negative to neutral, with questions pressing on competitive intensity, consumer weakness, tour cancellations, private label durability, and whether AI/LLMs could shift economics; the tone was probing but largely constructive (e.g., focus on "return to growth" drivers and visibility).

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Management: slightly positive in prepared remarks and generally steady in Q&A, repeatedly framing sequential improvements and execution, while acknowledging external uncertainties; CEO Fey used confidence language such as "we are confident" and operational focus language such as "our objective is operating leverage."

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Versus last quarter, management sounded less transitional and more execution-focused (less emphasis on leadership changes and cost program completion, more emphasis on app mix, private label partner actions, and Q2/Q3 product releases).

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

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The full-year outlook language was consistent across the two calls, with both quarters reaffirming marketplace GOV of $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $40 million.

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The current call added concrete Q1 execution details (including app share exceeding 40% and a new private label partner) versus the prior call’s heavier emphasis on leadership updates, corporate simplification, and achieving $60 million in annualized cost savings.

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Analyst focus shifted from broad 2026 setup and AI channel sizing in Q4 to near-term indicators in Q1 (industry volumes quarter-to-date, competitive behavior in paid search vs. pricing, and timing/mechanics of a second-half return to year-over-year growth).

RISKS AND CONCERNS

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Competitive pressure remained an explicit theme, with CEO Fey citing continued aggressiveness by "some other players" even as StubHub’s paid search intensity moderated.

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Event supply uncertainty surfaced through management’s discussion of tour cancellations and potential "mispricing" by artists, alongside variability risk around World Cup matchups.

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Consumer sensitivity risk was acknowledged in specific geographies, with CEO Fey flagging "weakness" in "the lower end of the Vegas market" and characterizing 2026 there as "more of a blocking and tackling type year."

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Management framed Q1 as a sequential inflection with "meaningful" improvements in GOV, adjusted EBITDA, and cash, while keeping the full-year marketplace GOV and adjusted EBITDA outlook unchanged. The CEO emphasized product-led conversion work in Q2 and Q3, continued momentum in the app (with app share of GOV exceeding 40%), and incremental private label actions (a new partner and an extension) as building blocks toward returning to year-over-year growth in the second half, while acknowledging ongoing competitive dynamics, event cancellations, and pockets of consumer softness.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/seat/earnings/transcripts]

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* Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4898862-vivid-seats-inc-seat-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript]
* Vivid Seats Inc. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4882083-vivid-seats-inc-2025-q4-results-earnings-call-presentation]
* Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4881634-vivid-seats-inc-seat-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Vivid Seats reports Q1 results [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4585463-vivid-seats-reports-q1-results]
* Vivid Seats outlines $2.2B-$2.6B GOV target for 2026 as cost reductions bolster app-driven strategy [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4563839-vivid-seats-outlines-2_2b-2_6b-gov-target-for-2026-as-cost-reductions-bolster-app-driven]