The S&P 500 could reach 13,000 by the end of the decade – strategist

[Stock market chart]
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Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, projects the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) could climb to between 10,000 and 13,000 by the end of the decade, representing substantial gains from current levels.

In an interview with CNBC, Bartels expressed strong confidence in this long-term outlook, even as she anticipates a turbulent 2026 that could test investor patience.

The strategist views 2026 as a period of necessary correction for markets that have been running hot. Bartels explained that markets, particularly the Magnificent 7 (MAGS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MAGS]) and the tech sector (XLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLK]), (VGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGT]), (IYW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IYW]), cannot “continue to go vertical” and instead need a reset with considerable volatility ahead.

She also noted that 2026’s status as a mid-term election year typically brings additional market choppiness.

Despite the cautious near-term view, Bartels sees opportunity in any pullback. “I would love to see a little bit of a retracement,” she said, noting that investors with cash on the sidelines could benefit from lower entry points. A correction in semiconductors (SMH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SMH]), (SOXX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SOXX]) specifically would “reset them to continue to rally into the end of the decade,” she added.

Technology (XLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLK]), (VGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGT]), (IYW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IYW]) will maintain its market dominance through this period of volatility, according to Bartels. “I think the leadership stays tacked because that’s where the power of the earning is going to be,” she explained, dismissing the notion that value sectors like healthcare (XLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLV]) or financials (XLF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLF]) could take over leadership despite showing some recent strength.

Market concentration remains a concern, though Bartels believes it can persist. She expressed hope for increased IPO (IPO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IPO]) activity and new companies entering the market, which would signal the euphoria typically seen toward the end of a secular bull market that she believes began in 2013.

For 2026 specifically, Bartels targets the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) closing at 7,500 by year-end, representing positive gains despite the anticipated volatility. Her current strategy involves reducing risk and portfolio volatility now while planning to add back exposure next year as opportunities emerge from any market weakness.

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