Is It Time To Reassess Enerflex (TSX:EFX) After Its 216.5% One Year Rally?

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Wondering whether Enerflex's recent share price puts it in the bargain bin or the overhyped bucket? This article walks through the key numbers that matter for value focused investors. Enerflex's share price sits at $28.44 after a 2.3% decline over the last week and a 3.4% decline over the past month, although the stock has returned 30.2% year to date and 216.5% over the last year. That kind of move often follows shifts in how the market views a company's risk and long term prospects, whether through changes in investor sentiment, sector attention or company specific developments. For Enerflex, these price moves frame an important question: what are investors currently paying for, and how does that compare to what the business may be worth based on fundamentals? Enerflex currently has a value score of 3 out of 6, which means it screens as undervalued on half of the checks used in this framework. The next sections will break down the standard valuation tools investors often turn to, then finish with a way of looking at value that can give you a clearer, big picture view.

Enerflex delivered 216.5% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Energy Services industry.

Approach 1: Enerflex Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a business may generate in the future and discounts those cash flows back to today to arrive at an estimated value per share.

For Enerflex, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The company’s latest twelve month free cash flow sits at $238.7 million, with analyst supported and extrapolated projections pointing to free cash flow of $288.7 million in 2030. Simply Wall St provides ten year projections that gradually step up from $229.7 million in 2026 to $315.8 million in 2035, all adjusted back to today’s dollars within the model.

Rolling these discounted figures together produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.07 per share, compared with the recent share price of $28.44. On this DCF view, the stock screens as 61.1% undervalued, suggesting the market price is well below the cash flow based estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Enerflex is undervalued by 61.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 8 more high quality undervalued stocks.EFX Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Enerflex.

Story Continues

Approach 2: Enerflex Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings, which is often what drives longer term returns. A higher P/E usually reflects higher expected growth or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can reflect lower growth expectations or higher perceived risk.

Enerflex currently trades on a P/E of 39.0x. That sits above the Energy Services industry average of 18.4x and above the peer group average of 20.2x. This suggests the market is putting a higher earnings multiple on Enerflex than on many of its sector peers.

Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 21.9x for Enerflex. This is a proprietary P/E level that reflects factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, its industry, profit margins, market capitalization and specific risks. Because it adjusts for these company specific factors, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peer or industry averages.

Comparing the Fair Ratio of 21.9x with the current P/E of 39.0x, Enerflex screens as trading above this fair value anchor.

Result: OVERVALUEDTSX:EFX P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Enerflex Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Simply Wall St’s Narratives let you attach a clear story to the numbers by linking your view on Enerflex’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current price to help you judge whether the stock looks cheap or expensive on your terms. All of this happens within the Community page, where Narratives are updated automatically as new earnings or news arrive. One investor might build a higher fair value Narrative around factors such as a CA$42.0 price target, expected earnings of $261.2 million and a future P/E of 17.4x. Another might build a more cautious Narrative closer to a CA$26.0 fair value using earnings of $209.7 million and a future P/E of 12.9x. This shows how the same company can support very different, but clearly quantified, views.

For Enerflex however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Enerflex Narratives:

🐂 Enerflex Bull Case

Fair value: CA$37.21

Gap to fair value: 23.6% below this narrative fair value at the last close of CA$28.44

Revenue growth assumption: 1.7%

Analysts in this camp anchor on global natural gas demand, a CA$1.2b backlog and a tilt toward higher margin infrastructure and service work supporting recurring cash flows. They build in higher profit margins, earnings of $218.6 million, share count drifting lower through buybacks and a 17.4x future P/E to arrive at the CA$37.21 fair value. Key watchpoints include reliance on traditional gas assets, limited decarbonization offerings, leadership changes and cyclical spending that could affect future cash generation.

🐻 Enerflex Bear Case

Fair value: CA$26.00

Gap to fair value: 9.4% above this narrative fair value at the last close of CA$28.44

Revenue growth assumption: 0.2%

The more cautious view keeps revenue broadly flat and focuses on dependence on natural gas projects, long equipment lead times, higher planned growth capex and exposure to newer data center power markets. This group assumes earnings of $209.7 million and an eventual 12.9x P/E, which is closer to sector levels, to arrive at a CA$26.00 fair value. They still acknowledge support from contracted BOOM projects, backlog and data center opportunities, but see current pricing as baking in a lot of that comfort already.

If you want to go beyond the previews and see how other investors are joining the dots between these numbers and their own assumptions, See what the community is saying about Enerflex.

Do you think there's more to the story for Enerflex? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!TSX:EFX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include EFX.TO.

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