A Look At TC Energy (TSX:TRP) Valuation After An Eight-Day Winning Streak And Rising Market Interest

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What sparked the latest interest in TC Energy?

TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has been drawing fresh attention after an eight-day winning streak in its stock, during which the share price gained 8.2% and market capitalization rose by about CA$5.6b to CA$73b.

This share price move followed the company’s appearance at the From Delay to Delivery conference at the Calgary Petroleum Club, where Trevor Ebl, President of Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines, presented on May 19, 2026.

See our latest analysis for TC Energy.

Beyond this conference appearance, TC Energy’s recent 19.22% 1 month share price return and 27.39% year to date share price return, alongside a 47.98% 1 year total shareholder return and very large 3 year total shareholder return of about 14x, point to momentum that investors will likely be weighing against the company’s existing fundamentals and risk profile.

If this kind of momentum in energy infrastructure has your attention, it could be a good time to see what else is moving in power grid technology and infrastructure stocks via the 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

With TC Energy up strongly over the past year, the stock now trades above the average analyst price target and the intrinsic value estimate. This raises a key question for you: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in much of the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.2% Overvalued

TC Energy’s last close at CA$97.90 sits above the most followed fair value estimate of CA$91.30, which is built using a 6.53% discount rate and detailed earnings, revenue and margin assumptions.

Investors may be overestimating TC Energy's long-term revenue and EBITDA growth by assuming that the current surge in North American natural gas demand, driven by LNG export growth, coal-to-gas conversions, data center buildouts, and electrification, will persist at elevated rates, despite mounting global pressures for renewables and potential demand destruction for fossil fuels over the long run.

Market optimism around new project announcements and sanctioned capacity additions may be ignoring structural risks from stricter climate policies and possible future carbon pricing, which could increase regulatory costs and compress net margins for pipeline operators like TC Energy.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that fair value call? The narrative leans on specific revenue growth, margin expansion and earnings targets that do the heavy lifting.

Story Continues

Result: Fair Value of CA$91.30 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if long term gas demand stays firmer than expected or TC Energy secures more high return brownfield projects, today’s overvaluation thesis could face pressure.

Find out about the key risks to this TC Energy narrative.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around TC Energy feels familiar, then now is the moment to review the data yourself and stress test your own thesis, starting with the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If TC Energy has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not relying on a single story.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TRP.TO.

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